Welcome to the Asset Flow weekly wrap.
It’s December 2025. (already?), and the property market is not slowing down—it’s just getting smarter. The major story this week, reinforced by every major data release, is that the market is punishing complexity and rewarding simplicity: low supply and strong rental income win every time.
Forget the headlines about Sydney’s median price; your focus, as an early-stage investor, must be on where the market fundamentals are the strongest. Right now, that’s where affordability meets overwhelming demand. We call this the ‘Scarcity Squeeze.‘
Here is the week’s strategic deep dive, designed to help you cut through the noise and target your next high-performing asset.
Key Market Disconnect: Where Affordability Ends, Growth Begins
The latest data from CoreLogic and the ABS confirms a critical fork in the road for investors: the two most expensive cities are slowing, while the affordable growth centres are accelerating.
| Metric | Sydney/Melbourne (Expensive) | Perth/Brisbane (Affordable Growth) | Investor Implication |
| Nov Price Growth | Slowing to +0.3% to +0.5% | Accelerating to +1.7% to +2.4% | Lesson: Affordability constraints are hitting the ceiling; maximum momentum is in the mid-tier capitals. |
| Vacancy Rate | Sydney 1.3%, Melbourne 1.8% (October) | Perth 0.7%, Adelaide 0.8%, Brisbane 1.0% | Lesson: High yield (cash flow) and income security is guaranteed outside the major east coast cities. |
| New Approvals (Oct ABS) | Private Dwellings excluding houses fell 13.1% nationally. | The housing supply pipeline is tightening, especially for medium/high-density. | Lesson: Scarcity is getting worse, especially for the unit/apartment stock needed to house the population. |
The message is clear: the RBA holding the cash rate at 3.60% is acting as a natural market brake on expensive debt, which disproportionately impacts high-value, low-yield assets.
The Two Most Impactful Ideas for New Investors
If you only focus on two ideas this week, make them these. They represent the consensus strategy being executed by professional investors right now.
1. The Power of the High-Yield Buffer
In volatile times, your first priority must be stability. The High-Yield Buffer is your financial safety net.
- The Principle: In line with popular wealth management advice, a primary goal is to generate passive income that covers your expenses—or in property, that covers your holding costs.
- The Data: SQM Research reports that the unit market nationally is delivering superior rental yields (5.11%average, compared to 4.05% for houses). In cities like Brisbane and Adelaide, this yield is closer to 5.5% or 6% in specific areas.
- Your Action: Stop prioritising capital growth alone. Focus on finding assets (especially quality, established units/townhouses) that deliver cash-flow neutrality or positivity immediately. This removes stress, allows you to hold through any future rate fluctuations, and frees up your capital for the next investment sooner.
2. The Scarcity Squeeze: Leveraging Undersupply
The real investment opportunity is not in buying what is cheap, but buying what is scarce and required by the market.
- The Principle: Successful wealth builders identify structural, non-negotiable demand. In Australia, the structural demand is population growth, and the structural constraint is housing supply.
- The Data: The ABS revealed total dwelling approvals nationally fell 6.4% in October, with private dwellings excluding houses (the type needed for population growth) falling 13.1%. Simultaneously, Perth’s listings are 40%below average, driving 2.4% monthly growth.
- Your Action: The Scarcity Squeeze means you must target assets in markets where new supply is physically impossible to meet demand. This confirms Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide as non-negotiable targets. Your competitive advantage is finding a quality, established asset in a low-listings suburb before the inevitable price correction occurs.
Target Strategy: Where to Apply the Pressure
The consensus from the analyst and buyer’s agent community is to go all-in on the mid-sized capitals but be highly specific about the asset type.
| Target Market | Strategic Rationale (Why) | Tactical Asset to Acquire (What) |
| Perth | Unprecedented supply shortage. The market is running hot and showing no signs of stopping. Rates and affordability haven’t slowed it down yet. | Established Houses: Focus on the $650k – $850k price bracket. Look for assets with development potential (subdivision, duplex) to maximize capital. |
| Brisbane | Highest interstate migration; strong 1.0% vacancy. Units are the affordable entry point as median house price pushes higher. | Quality Low-Rise Units/Townhouses: Avoid high-rise. Target brick, low-strata units in the 5-15km ring near good schools and transport for superior yield and growth. |
| Adelaide | The most consistent market for rental security (0.8% vacancy) combined with the lowest median house price among the accelerating capitals. | Houses in the Outer Rings: Look 20−30km out. You get the land component and access to the tight rental market with minimal competition from owner-occupiers. |
Investor Action Steps: Next 7 Days
- Run a Cash Flow Stress Test: Use your broker’s calculator to run two scenarios: one where you buy in Sydney (high price, low yield) and one in Brisbane/Adelaide (lower price, high yield). See how the cash flow difference impacts your monthly budget. This exercise highlights the immediate benefit of the High-Yield Buffer.
- Verify Local Scarcity: Before committing to any suburb, check its specific vacancy rate (SQM) and listings count (CoreLogic/REA). If the vacancy is above 2.0% or listings are high, walk away.
- Secure Your Finance: With the RBA rate on hold, your serviceability is stable for now. Use this stable period to lock in your pre-approval, knowing your finance limit is firm before the Christmas/New Year break reduces stock and increases competition.
The market is giving you a gift: a clear path away from the debt traps and into the profitable fundamentals of scarcity and strong income. Stop watching the big city medians, and start building your income security.